Russian influence in Ukraine
Russian influence in Ukraine
The Russian navy reopened three Ukrainian warships attempting to enter the Sea of Azov from the Black Sea and captured its 24 sailors to mark the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that erupted in 2014 after annexation by Russia from the Ukrainian Crimea. What is worrying is not the diplomatic tension between the two countries, but the possibility of turning this tension into a military confrontation.
The importance of the military confrontation in the Kerch Strait is a test of a future Russian escalation preventing Ukraine from reaching the Sea of Azov, which is connected to the Black Sea by this strait. Ukraine exports many commercial goods along the shores of the Sea of Azov, and the possibility of not doing so has a major impact on its economy. The importance of this incident stems from the fact that it was announced after the reinforcement of the Russian army in recent months along the border with Ukraine, warning against a widespread ground offensive, pushing the Ukrainian government to take a series of measures such as the declaration of the state of emergency in 10 border areas. Russia to Ukraine during the state of emergency.
For his part, US President Donald Trump canceled his meeting with the Russian president at the G20 summit in response to the escalating situation in Russia. The US military also made an "unusual" exit to Ukraine, a direct message to Russia about Washington's readiness for a possible aggression. These indicators mean that all sides take the Russian escalation seriously, but believe that it could turn into a vast offensive. Which raises the question of the reasons for the escalation of Moscow at that time.
Although the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been ongoing since 2014, the latest incident is the direct military confrontation between the two countries. Russia followed a strategy of "hybrid war" - the indirect war in which the separatists of eastern Ukraine supported the takeover of the Ukrainian government. In addition to supporting the separatists, Moscow has used killings of specific personalities in Ukraine, electronic warfare, piracy and a trade embargo, as well as all its means to weaken the performance of the Ukrainian economy and create a sense of instability among the population.
The prevailing image is that Russia has survived its aggressive actions: it has managed to cut off part of Ukraine despite the violation of international standards since the end of the Second World War. He also ignored international pressure for the return of Crimea to Ukraine and the economic sanctions that led to the decline of the Russian economy. All this led analysts to portray Russia as the winner of this crisis. But Vladimir Putin thinks he has not won yet.
Putin's regime has not satisfied all that has been achieved for his country since the annexation of Crimea and has not mitigated the negative effects on his country of what he calls the "coup" of Kiev. But works tirelessly to implement a new coup. In his attempts, Moscow was faced with the dilemma of how it could follow. As Europe and the United States moved away from their reaction to Russia in 2014, the latter tried to avoid new reactions, refrained from any direct confrontation with Ukraine, went first to a hybrid war, then towards a set of unstable policies that caused turmoil in the country.
Western reactions to the annexation of Crimea have subsided and Russia has become a major player in a whole series of international problems, which has led it to test the possibility of a new escalation with Ukraine, in particular after the stalemate of the indirect and progressive war strategy.
Thus, the escalation between Russia and Ukraine is expected as long as Moscow continues its strategy of overthrowing the elected Ukrainian government and bringing the country under Russian influence. The option of a large-scale land-based military attack may not provoke international interference that does not take into account its consequences. But controlling the shores of the Sea of Azov and preventing Ukraine from using it to export its products are all a major goal of Moscow.
The importance of the military confrontation in the Kerch Strait is a test of a future Russian escalation preventing Ukraine from reaching the Sea of Azov, which is connected to the Black Sea by this strait. Ukraine exports many commercial goods along the shores of the Sea of Azov, and the possibility of not doing so has a major impact on its economy. The importance of this incident stems from the fact that it was announced after the reinforcement of the Russian army in recent months along the border with Ukraine, warning against a widespread ground offensive, pushing the Ukrainian government to take a series of measures such as the declaration of the state of emergency in 10 border areas. Russia to Ukraine during the state of emergency.
For his part, US President Donald Trump canceled his meeting with the Russian president at the G20 summit in response to the escalating situation in Russia. The US military also made an "unusual" exit to Ukraine, a direct message to Russia about Washington's readiness for a possible aggression. These indicators mean that all sides take the Russian escalation seriously, but believe that it could turn into a vast offensive. Which raises the question of the reasons for the escalation of Moscow at that time.
Although the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been ongoing since 2014, the latest incident is the direct military confrontation between the two countries. Russia followed a strategy of "hybrid war" - the indirect war in which the separatists of eastern Ukraine supported the takeover of the Ukrainian government. In addition to supporting the separatists, Moscow has used killings of specific personalities in Ukraine, electronic warfare, piracy and a trade embargo, as well as all its means to weaken the performance of the Ukrainian economy and create a sense of instability among the population.
The prevailing image is that Russia has survived its aggressive actions: it has managed to cut off part of Ukraine despite the violation of international standards since the end of the Second World War. He also ignored international pressure for the return of Crimea to Ukraine and the economic sanctions that led to the decline of the Russian economy. All this led analysts to portray Russia as the winner of this crisis. But Vladimir Putin thinks he has not won yet.
Putin's regime has not satisfied all that has been achieved for his country since the annexation of Crimea and has not mitigated the negative effects on his country of what he calls the "coup" of Kiev. But works tirelessly to implement a new coup. In his attempts, Moscow was faced with the dilemma of how it could follow. As Europe and the United States moved away from their reaction to Russia in 2014, the latter tried to avoid new reactions, refrained from any direct confrontation with Ukraine, went first to a hybrid war, then towards a set of unstable policies that caused turmoil in the country.
Western reactions to the annexation of Crimea have subsided and Russia has become a major player in a whole series of international problems, which has led it to test the possibility of a new escalation with Ukraine, in particular after the stalemate of the indirect and progressive war strategy.
Thus, the escalation between Russia and Ukraine is expected as long as Moscow continues its strategy of overthrowing the elected Ukrainian government and bringing the country under Russian influence. The option of a large-scale land-based military attack may not provoke international interference that does not take into account its consequences. But controlling the shores of the Sea of Azov and preventing Ukraine from using it to export its products are all a major goal of Moscow.
Russian influence in Ukraine
Reviewed by منوعات
on
janvier 12, 2019
Rating:
Reviewed by منوعات
on
janvier 12, 2019
Rating:
Aucun commentaire